The Athletic's Pittsburgh Penguins 2021-22 season predictions (2024)

TAMPA — Another hockey season is upon us, which means the season of predictions has arrived.

The Penguins, on the surface, appear to be a fringe playoff team, but your reporters at The Athletic believe a 16th consecutive postseason appearance will take place in Pittsburgh.

Here’s a look at predictions from Sean Gentille, Rob Rossi and Josh Yohe, along with some explanations and additional beliefs on what the 2021-22 Penguins will manage.

GENTILLE: For the first time since … ever, actually, because I wasn’t around for the Mike Bossy Era, I’m sold on the Islanders as the best team in their division. It’s been true for the last couple of years, but I wasn’t willing to take the plunge. Now I am. It’s them, then a gap, then five teams that could all conceivably finish in second or seventh.

The Penguins and Rangers will be in my top four until they fall out on their own. I’m not going to pick them to miss the playoffs until they do. I think the Caps are further down the hill, though, at least enough to ignore the Rangers’ offseason grit-a-palooza and bump them to third.

The Hurricanes, minus Dougie Hamilton and plus a couple downgrades in goal, are poised for a step back. I love the Devils — prep for the Jack Hughes scoring breakout — but they’re a year or two away.

Philly should be better, but Alain Vigneault is a candidate for First Coach Fired. And the Blue Jackets … hoo man. Congrats on getting Zach Werenski to stay, drafting a game-ready center and, uh, Patrik Laine’s preseason. Gonna be ugly from here on out.

Art Ross Trophy winner: Connor McDavid. Nobody can vote on points.

Hart Trophy winner: Nathan MacKinnon. It just seems like time for people to get tired of Connor McDavid.

Stanley Cup Final prediction: Avalanche over Islanders

Penguins predictions

• On the ice — at least before the offseason — there’s no satisfying end. They’re good enough to make the postseason but not make a serious run, so the choice — again — is “blow it up or run it back” without any obvious answer. Will that come on the first day of free agency? We’ll see. But the team’s play won’t make it easy in either direction.
• They’re still a secondary scorer or two short, even when Malkin returns from his knee injury. Hextall has taken a little more heat than he deserves for Jared McCann winding up in Seattle, but they’re going to miss him.
• Dominik Simon doesn’t play enough for anyone to resume the wars of our forefathers.
• Kris Letang delivers early on. He’s still very good, still very proud and still very determined to prove that he’s worth one last big-time deal in Pittsburgh.
• Brian Dumoulin makes the Olympic team. I’m told he knows the coach. Seriously, he’s good enough to be in the discussion on his own, and if it comes down to Sullivan carrying an eighth defenseman he knows and loves, what do you think he’ll do?

ROSSI: Oh, my beloved Metropolitan Division … welcome back. And, like, what the heck? Whereas once we all knew two playoff spots would be taken by longtime stalwarts, now neither the Penguins nor Capitals seem like a lock. In fact, the next chapter of the Sidney Crosby and Alex Ovechkin storybook could find their clubs battling for a wild-card spot instead of a spot in the conference final.

Life comes at us fast, indeed.

I could make a case that only The Devil (trademark: Michel Therrien) didn’t get worse among the eight clubs. Whether that dynamic is enough for New Jersey to snag a playoff spot — yeah, why not? Jack Hughes in Year 3 has Special Sauce feel.

But aside from the Islanders and Hurricanes, each deep enough to deserve consideration as co-favorites, a case could be made for any other two clubs to make the playoffs. The exception is in Columbus, where nobody seems to want to stay, which is reason enough for Jack Eichel to end up with the Blue Jackets.

Here’s the bottom line: only three Metro clubs are guaranteed postseason spots, and my prediction is that only three make it. Should be fun if I’m proven right.

Art Ross Trophy: Mr. McDavid lands his fourth scoring title. It’s not really interesting if he is healthy enough to play 72 games.

Hart Trophy: Aleksander Barkov, your time is now.

Stanley Cup Final: Maple Leafs over Avalanche

Penguins predictions

• Kris Letang wins the Norris Trophy. This is the hockey hill on which I’m willing to die.
• Bryan Rust and P-O Joseph are packaged at the trade deadline for a move that helps set up the Penguins’ endgame of the Crosby/Malkin era.
• Malkin returns from the Olympics with a silver medal, but plays well enough to convince management he’ll be healthy going forward. The Penguins, spooked by non-sellouts and suspicion Crosby won’t want to spend his final three seasons as Last Man Standing, sign Malkin for three seasons at a $7.5 million AAV — a significant salary reduction that comes with a valued trade-off for Malkin in the form of another full no-movement clause.
• No Penguin finishes with 30 goals.
• Deadline acquisition Jonathan Quick pulls a Jeff Carter, rediscovers his touch and fuels a late-season surge that allows the Penguins to extend the NHL’s longest playoff streak. And then he steals Game 7 in Carolina to snap a run of first-round losses by the Penguins.
• The Penguins formally announce plans to retire Jaromir Jagr’s No. 68 as part of an October 2022 homestand against each of Jagr’s other NHL clubs.

YOHE: I don’t think this division is very good. Really, who got better in the offseason? I’d suggest the Devils did, but otherwise, I believe every team in this division returns status quo or, in some cases, significantly worse.

Still, I suspect four teams will make the postseason from this division, with Florida, Tampa Bay, Boston and Toronto reaching the postseason from the Atlantic Division. It’s pretty hard to ignore what the Islanders have done, and they’re the best bet to win this division. They’re indomitable. I don’t really think they’re a real Stanley Cup contender, nor have I ever. There’s just something missing up front in their lineup and I think it will prevent them from going over the top. But they’re co*ckroaches, and I mean that in the nicest way possible. They just never die.

Carolina is very good and a playoff team, but I worry about the Canes’ goaltending. The Rangers are going to make a move this season. They’re must-see TV and will make a strong run at the division title. They’re loaded with talent.

Look for the Penguins to claim the final postseason spot, holding off their old friends, the Capitals. I don’t like Washington’s roster other than its top two forward lines. The end is near for the Capitals.

Look out for the Devils. They’re the dark horse in this division. The Devils have the ability to reach the postseason, though I suspect they’re probably a year away. Philly? I don’t know what to make of the Flyers, but I don’t think they’re very good.

Columbus has decent goaltending but nothing else to speak of.

Art Ross Trophy: Connor McDavid. He won’t be quite as dominant this season, but still, he’s winning the scoring title if he stays healthy.

Hart Trophy: Nathan MacKinnon. Best player on the best team.

Stanley Cup Final: Avalanche over Lightning

Penguins predictions

• Either Kris Letang or Evgeni Malkin is playing his final season in a Penguins uniform. I didn’t feel this way a couple of months ago, but now, I do. Losing one of them could be a real problem for the Penguins moving forward. But you know what? Keeping both past their expiration date, at a high rate, could be disastrous, too. Wouldn’t shock me if this is Letang’s last season in Pittsburgh.
• The Penguins will make the playoffs but won’t clinch a spot until the final game of the season against Carolina. Never has their playoff streak been in more jeopardy.
• Sidney Crosby will register better than one point per game for a 16th straight season, something only Wayne Gretzky did more times.
• Crosby will find himself in the Hart Trophy discussion after registering 95 points in 75 games while willing the Penguins to the playoffs.
• Once again, the Penguins will lose in the first round to the Islanders, and with it will come sweeping organizational changes.
• The Penguins won’t trade their first-round selection in 2022.
• The Penguins’ home sellout streak will end on Oct. 28 against the Flames.
• Tristan Jarry won’t be the Penguins’ No. 1 goaltender come February.

(Photo: Emilee Chinn / Getty Images)